People will always tend to resist change, whether it is in their interest or not - it is just human nature. This resistance can be conscious or subconscious in that the resistance will not always be explicitly manifested in a negative manner but may be simply in the process required to adapt. Clean technology is in the interest of mankind's future but the resistance embedded in the process of adaptation means that innovative and radical new technologies may take much longer to become useful as a clean technology whereas smaller and incremental technologies will be the success stories in the short, medium and even long term.
What are the implications?
1) Cleantech companies whose products require radical changes in process, require large investments or require highly special skill-sets, regardless of how unique and valuable they are, will not yield the results or returns that might be expected.
2) There will not be a unique, innovative technological solution to the problems caused by global warming that is financially feasible in the short to medium-term, and maybe even the long term.
3) This may also mean that environmental problems will get worse before they get better as the process of adaptation may not be quick enough to reduce the impact of global warming and the factors that cause it.
What does this mean for investors?
I believe that, for example, technologies that change one component of systems such as cleaner batteries or highly efficient electrical components will quickly gain momentum while technologies that change many elements of systems or require system overhauls such as smart grid technology, while very feasible with clear benefits, will take much longer and may never provide a viable return on investment. Investors who want to make a good return on investment in clean technology should therefore focus on companies pursuing incremental technologies while governments and large corporations should focus on supporting technologies which change fundamentals.
Comments invited.
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