I think that any country faced with similar fiscal and monetary circumstances as the United States would have experienced a significant depreciation in the value of their currency many months ago. With a steadily increasing current account and trade deficit, the US Dollar should have depreciated significantly through market forces. The difference perhaps is that the US Dollar is the primary reserve currency of most countries worldwide and it is in the interest of the world that the US currency be stable, especially for China. The question is how long can this situation be maintained before the currency starts to buckle under market pressures. Already countries such as the UAE, Russia and some European countries are diversifying away from the US Dollar while the US is printing more currency to settle it's own markets. By my observation, the global supply of the US Dollar should be greater than the demand for it.
Specifically, with respect to China, the US is borrowing its own currency from China and China is replenishing its stock of USD through trade. My concern is what happens when the US borrows its own currency from China and therefore is faced with two future currency outflows:
1) Future loan interest payments of USD to China over the long-term
2) Future sustained outflows of USD to China through the trade deficit
It's a cycle of erosion in my view and perhaps it is destined for a failure that could be the catalyst for a necessary recomposition of the global financial system.
Moreover, China is now pushing to trade in its own currency, for example, with Brazil. This video give a very interesting perspective on Chinese policy...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Country_Reports/Is_the_renminbi_the_next_global_currency_2532